A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
